Stem the flow, spread the panic, burst the bubble, skim the profits

stefano fait:

terrorismo mediatico: gonfia la bolla, bucala, strafogati di tutto quel che puoi strappandolo agli sfigati che ci hanno lasciato le penne, dai la colpa ai russi, ai cinesi e ai tedeschi e poi ricomincia.
Convinciti che per qualche ragione i cinesi si dimenticheranno che li hai trattati a pesci in faccia dalle guerre dell’oppio in poi e, dopo l’implosione USA, ti permetteranno di trasfeririti a Hong Kong e continuare come se nulla fosse.
Il Game Over è prossimo

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

black-monday-red_01
The richest one percent of this country owns half our country’s wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and idiot sons and what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It’s bullshit. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth
.

Gordon Gekko, Wall Street, 1987

Two ways to interpret the financial panic.

  1. It’s all the fault of China (slumping manufacturing, bloated stock market), Russian sinking ruble and the fading euro;
  2. banks are deliberately crashing the markets in order to get QE4 and mop up assets and the U.S. economy is seriously in distress;

If 1, then this is the proof that China is a paper tiger and cannot challenge the U.S. primacy.

If 2, then the collapse of the Chinese stock market means that Chinese…

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Future currencies and gold – Bernard Lietaer (Sorbonne) on complementary currencies

stefano fait:

Non c’è bisogno di abolire l’euro. Le valute complementari possono neutralizzare lo strapotere di alcuni cartelli bancari e le spinte omologatrici delle forze accentratrici.
Sì, in questo caso è possibile avere la botte piena e la moglie ubriaca: lo sostiene anche uno dei padri dell’euro, ora euroscettico (ma non eurofobo).

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

quote-greed-and-competition-are-not-the-result-of-immutable-human-temperment-greed-and-fear-bernard-lietaer-79-46-81

Bernard Lietaer is one of the architects of the euro.

The WIR seems quite a good model, almost an ideal currency for things that could be looked at in other parts of the world?

I have an even better model to recommend than the WIR. My interest in the WIR is due the fact that it is the only case where we have quality data over 80 years. There’s no other system that has provided as much data, over as long a period. This is particularly important to evaluate long-term macro-economic impact.

The Commercial Credit Circuit (C3) – a convertible version of the WIR – is the one I would recommend as more interesting than the WIR, because it is a B2B complementary currency that is convertible into conventional money. This makes it possible for governments to accept it in payment of taxes.

Most government public procurements need to…

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Will Israeli exceptionalism prove deadly for the Jews?

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

20121116fr-coexist-palestine-israel

Domestically, the chief allies of American Jewry were once the liberal Protestants; the modern Catholics, whose great achievement was the Second Vatican Council; and progressive secularists. Now organized Jewry has an alliance with those who were not so long ago embittered anti-Semites. The Protestant fundamentalists think the founding of the Jewish state means that the conversion of the Jews is imminent. Suppose the fundamentalists demand that US Jewry anticipate the end of time by beginning their conversion now? Some have welcomed the Lebanon crisis as the initiation of Armageddon. In the meantime, they combat the pluralism of the public sphere, which is indispensable to enduring rights for Jews in the United States. America is in serious danger of becoming a nation defined not by citizenship but by bargains among struggling ethnic and religious communities, united in an impossible project of global domination. Will Nobel prizes and business acumen…

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Libri con le orecchie / 8.

Originally posted on pontidivista:

11846560_10205853056340513_5625436530888357689_nQualche mese fa – appena letto dell’imminente uscita – scrissi alla casa editrice Rizzoli per poter organizzare a Trento una presentazione con Sebastiano Vassalli del suo “Il confine. I cento anni del Sudtirolo in Italia.” (Rizzoli, 2015, 16,50 euro). Non ricevetti risposta. Qualche tempo dopo Vassalli se ne è andato – il 26 luglio scorso – e con lui la possibilità di coinvolgerlo in una chiacchierata attorno alla sua preziosa inchiesta sull’Alto Adige. Il tema rimane però di assoluta attualità. Anche in queste giornate agostane, “riscaldate” ancor più dalle polemiche esplose dopo la decisione degli Schutzen di piantare – nell’anno del Centenario della Prima guerra mondiale – una serie di croci su quello che un tempo fu il confine meridionale dell’Impero austro-ungarico. Qualcuno parlerà di folklore, altri di provocazione politica, altri ancora minimizzeranno in nome di un fascino pangermanista che fa capolino – marginalmente – anche in provincia di Trento.

Fatto sta che dentro l’idea di marcare…

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Peak humanity: time to shift from quantity to quality

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

World_population_growth_rates_1800-2005

Our global population is aging. The moment of peak youth on this planet was in 1972. Ever since then the average age on Earth has been increasing each year, and there is no end in sight for the aging of the world for the next several hundred years! The world will need the young to work and pay for medical care of the previous generation, but the young will be in short supply. Mexico is aging faster than the U.S., so all those young migrant workers who seem to be a problem now will soon be in demand back at home. In fact, after the peak, individual countries will race against each other to import workers, modifying immigration policies, but these individual successes and failures cancel out and won’t affect the global picture.

The picture for the latter half of this century will look like this: Increasing technology, cool…

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Something big and bad will happen to the bond market within 6 months

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

market_plunge

…regardless of what the US government is doing, why would these two banks make such a huge long-term investment in physical gold bullion bars? Perhaps, we are seeing a “Big Long,” similar to the “Big Short” Goldman Sachs is known to have taken in 2006/07. There are many who believe that we are soon going to see the collapse of a worldwide bond bubble, just as we saw a worldwide collapse of real estate values back then.

Maybe, these banks know something. Top bank executives don’t appear to trust counter-party promises…. You would not ordinarily take physical delivery of gold bars unless you wanted to have an asset free of counter-party risk. It implies they are seeing something big and bad as happening in the bond market, within 6 months to 2 years down the road. It strongly suggests that they do not trust the solvency of counter-parties. I…

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To Save Everything, Click Here: The Folly of Technological Solutionism

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

51zFUtHZviL._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_Recasting all complex social situations either as neat problems with definite, computable solutions or as transparent and self-evident processes that can be easily optimized–if only the right algorithms are in place!–this quest is likely to have unexpected consequences that could eventually cause more damage than the problems they seek to address. I call the ideology that legitimizes and sanctions such aspirations “solutionism.” I borrow this unabashedly pejorative term from the world of architecture and urban planning, where it has come to refer to an unhealthy preoccupation with sexy, monumental, and narrow-minded solutions–the kind of stuff that wows audiences at TED Conferences–to problems that are extremely complex, fluid, and contentious. These are the kinds of problems that, on careful examination, do not have to be defined in the singular and all-encompassing ways that “solutionists” have defined them; what’s contentious, then, is not their proposed solution but their very definition of the…

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Israel’s dead end

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

MIDEAST ISRAEL PALESTINIANS

Let’s start with the geopolitical Big Bang you know nothing about, the one that occurred just two weeks ago. Here are its results: from now on, any possible future attack on Iran threatened by the Pentagon (in conjunction with NATO) would essentially be an assault on the planning of an interlocking set of organizations — the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union), the AIIB (the new Chinese-founded Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), and the NDB (the BRICS’ New Development Bank) — whose acronyms you’re unlikely to recognize either. Still, they represent an emerging new order in Eurasia.

Tehran, Beijing, Moscow, Islamabad, and New Delhi have been actively establishing interlocking security guarantees. They have been simultaneously calling the Atlanticist bluff when it comes to the endless drumbeat of attention given to the flimsy meme of Iran’s “nuclear weapons program.”…

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How come billionaires are buying desert areas?

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

Sahara megalakes during  during the Pleistocene and Holocene Sahara megalakes during during the Pleistocene and Holocene

There are no green thumbs or black thumbs. There are only gardeners and non-gardeners.  Gardeners are the ones who ruin after ruin get on with the high defiance of nature herself, creating, in the very face of her chaos and tornado, the bower of roses and the pride of irises. It sounds very well to garden a ‘natural way’.  You may see the natural way in any desert, any swamp, any leech-filled laurel hell.  Defiance, on the other hand, is what makes gardeners.
–   Henry Mitchell

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What will happen to Syria?

stefano fait:

#Syria, #balkanization, #deepstate, #Assad, #solutions.

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, social forecaster:

Ralph_Peters_solution_to_Mideast

Jean-Pierre Filiu, who teaches at Sciences Po in Paris after a career in France’s diplomatic corps which included tours of duty in Jordan, Syria and Tunisia, argues in his new book, From Deep State to Islamic State, that the Arab revolutions (as he calls them) have been foiled – Tunisia apart – by successful counter-revolutions organised by the ‘deep state’. In Syria – as in Egypt and Yemen – the deep state is the hard core of a regime that strongly resembles those of the Mamluks in Egypt and the Levant long ago. He holds the Syrian ‘Mamluks’ responsible not only for the devastation of their own country but also for the rise of Islamic State, with which, he suggests, they have been in cahoots. The ‘Mamluks’ are the main – indeed the only – villains in his story. His solution is to keep the revolutions going at all costs…

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