A chance for peace in a multipolar world

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


No people on earth can be held, as a people, to be an enemy, for all humanity shares the common hunger for #‎peace‬ and ‪#‎fellowship‬ and #‎justice‬. No nation’s security and well-being can be lastingly achieved in isolation but only in effective #‎cooperation with fellow-nations. Every nation’s right to a form of government and an economic system of its own choosing is inalienable. Any nation’s attempt to dictate to other nations their form of government is indefensible. A nation’s hope of lasting peace cannot be firmly based upon any race in armaments but rather upon just relations and honest understanding with all other nations.
U.S. President #‎Eisenhower, ‘Chance for Peace’ address, 1953

In today’s multicultural world, the truly reliable path to coexistence, to peaceful coexistence and creative cooperation, must start from what is at the root…

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Volcanoes will dramatically alter climate

stefano fait:

E a proposito di Piccola Era Glaciale e di vulcanismo (per quelli che: “la relazione tra attività solare e attività vulcanica è incerta…”)

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


Our predictions indicate that the present Cycle 24 is expected to be a low-peak cycle. We conclude that the level of solar activity is likely to be reduced significantly during the next 90 years, somewhat resembling the Maunder Minimum period.

On the Verge of a Grand Solar Minimum: A Second Maunder Minimum?Solar Physics, First online: 30 April 2015

The frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum).

Stothers, R.B., 1989,Volcanic eruptions and solar activity. J. Geophys. Res., 94

We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu, Myojin-sho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD 1700 to AD 2005). Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the group sunspot number. This strong…

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Keep them out, lock them up, bomb them all, or…

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


If someone supported Nazi Germany at the expense of the United States, we didn’t say that was freedom of speech, we put him in a camp, they were prisoners of war. If these people are radicalized and they don’t support the United States and they are disloyal to the United States as a matter of principle, fine. It’s their right and it’s our right and obligation to segregate them from the normal community for the duration of the conflict.

Retired general and former Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark,Wesley Clark: “Disloyal Americans” should be tossed in internment camps for the “duration” of the war on terror, Salon, 20 July 2015

Corriere della Sera: What do you propose, then? To deport five million French Muslims?

Zemmour: I know it’s unrealistic, but history takes us by surprise. Who would have thought in 1940 that a million pieds-noirs, twenty years later…

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Northern Europe and North America get a chilly surprise

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


The resulting northerly flow of cold air provides favourable conditions for severe winters in East Asia or North America.

Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia, Nature, 31 August 2015

The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining8 and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures.

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations, Nature, 27 May 2015

As the jet stream slows down it meanders more, causing weather systems to get stuck in place with a “blocking pattern” that pulls cold, Arctic air down over Europe and northern Asia for long periods at a time.

Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research, Telegraph, 27 October 2014

The Gulf Stream that helps to keep Britain from freezing over…

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Stem the flow, spread the panic, burst the bubble, skim the profits

stefano fait:

terrorismo mediatico: gonfia la bolla, bucala, strafogati di tutto quel che puoi strappandolo agli sfigati che ci hanno lasciato le penne, dai la colpa ai russi, ai cinesi e ai tedeschi e poi ricomincia.
Convinciti che per qualche ragione i cinesi si dimenticheranno che li hai trattati a pesci in faccia dalle guerre dell’oppio in poi e, dopo l’implosione USA, ti permetteranno di trasfeririti a Hong Kong e continuare come se nulla fosse.
Il Game Over è prossimo

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:

The richest one percent of this country owns half our country’s wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and idiot sons and what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It’s bullshit. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth

Gordon Gekko, Wall Street, 1987

Two ways to interpret the financial panic.

  1. It’s all the fault of China (slumping manufacturing, bloated stock market), Russian sinking ruble and the fading euro;
  2. banks are deliberately crashing the markets in order to get QE4 and mop up assets and the U.S. economy is seriously in distress;

If 1, then this is the proof that China is a paper tiger and cannot challenge the U.S. primacy.

If 2, then the collapse of the Chinese stock market means that Chinese…

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Future currencies and gold – Bernard Lietaer (Sorbonne) on complementary currencies

stefano fait:

Non c’è bisogno di abolire l’euro. Le valute complementari possono neutralizzare lo strapotere di alcuni cartelli bancari e le spinte omologatrici delle forze accentratrici.
Sì, in questo caso è possibile avere la botte piena e la moglie ubriaca: lo sostiene anche uno dei padri dell’euro, ora euroscettico (ma non eurofobo).

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


Bernard Lietaer is one of the architects of the euro.

The WIR seems quite a good model, almost an ideal currency for things that could be looked at in other parts of the world?

I have an even better model to recommend than the WIR. My interest in the WIR is due the fact that it is the only case where we have quality data over 80 years. There’s no other system that has provided as much data, over as long a period. This is particularly important to evaluate long-term macro-economic impact.

The Commercial Credit Circuit (C3) – a convertible version of the WIR – is the one I would recommend as more interesting than the WIR, because it is a B2B complementary currency that is convertible into conventional money. This makes it possible for governments to accept it in payment of taxes.

Most government public procurements need to…

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Will Israeli exceptionalism prove deadly for the Jews?

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


Domestically, the chief allies of American Jewry were once the liberal Protestants; the modern Catholics, whose great achievement was the Second Vatican Council; and progressive secularists. Now organized Jewry has an alliance with those who were not so long ago embittered anti-Semites. The Protestant fundamentalists think the founding of the Jewish state means that the conversion of the Jews is imminent. Suppose the fundamentalists demand that US Jewry anticipate the end of time by beginning their conversion now? Some have welcomed the Lebanon crisis as the initiation of Armageddon. In the meantime, they combat the pluralism of the public sphere, which is indispensable to enduring rights for Jews in the United States. America is in serious danger of becoming a nation defined not by citizenship but by bargains among struggling ethnic and religious communities, united in an impossible project of global domination. Will Nobel prizes and business acumen…

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Libri con le orecchie / 8.

Originally posted on pontidivista:

11846560_10205853056340513_5625436530888357689_nQualche mese fa – appena letto dell’imminente uscita – scrissi alla casa editrice Rizzoli per poter organizzare a Trento una presentazione con Sebastiano Vassalli del suo “Il confine. I cento anni del Sudtirolo in Italia.” (Rizzoli, 2015, 16,50 euro). Non ricevetti risposta. Qualche tempo dopo Vassalli se ne è andato – il 26 luglio scorso – e con lui la possibilità di coinvolgerlo in una chiacchierata attorno alla sua preziosa inchiesta sull’Alto Adige. Il tema rimane però di assoluta attualità. Anche in queste giornate agostane, “riscaldate” ancor più dalle polemiche esplose dopo la decisione degli Schutzen di piantare – nell’anno del Centenario della Prima guerra mondiale – una serie di croci su quello che un tempo fu il confine meridionale dell’Impero austro-ungarico. Qualcuno parlerà di folklore, altri di provocazione politica, altri ancora minimizzeranno in nome di un fascino pangermanista che fa capolino – marginalmente – anche in provincia di Trento.

Fatto sta che dentro l’idea di marcare…

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Peak humanity: time to shift from quantity to quality

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


Our global population is aging. The moment of peak youth on this planet was in 1972. Ever since then the average age on Earth has been increasing each year, and there is no end in sight for the aging of the world for the next several hundred years! The world will need the young to work and pay for medical care of the previous generation, but the young will be in short supply. Mexico is aging faster than the U.S., so all those young migrant workers who seem to be a problem now will soon be in demand back at home. In fact, after the peak, individual countries will race against each other to import workers, modifying immigration policies, but these individual successes and failures cancel out and won’t affect the global picture.

The picture for the latter half of this century will look like this: Increasing technology, cool…

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Something big and bad will happen to the bond market within 6 months

Originally posted on Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation:


…regardless of what the US government is doing, why would these two banks make such a huge long-term investment in physical gold bullion bars? Perhaps, we are seeing a “Big Long,” similar to the “Big Short” Goldman Sachs is known to have taken in 2006/07. There are many who believe that we are soon going to see the collapse of a worldwide bond bubble, just as we saw a worldwide collapse of real estate values back then.

Maybe, these banks know something. Top bank executives don’t appear to trust counter-party promises…. You would not ordinarily take physical delivery of gold bars unless you wanted to have an asset free of counter-party risk. It implies they are seeing something big and bad as happening in the bond market, within 6 months to 2 years down the road. It strongly suggests that they do not trust the solvency of counter-parties. I…

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