fatti, robusti fatti…e pregiudizi
Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities.
This is one of the chief culprits of predictive failures in climate science.
Luckily, someone is more resistant to this bias than others.
SHAPIRO: OK. So El Nino plays a role. The Arctic oscillation plays a role. What about climate change? Is that playing a role?
HALPERT [Mike Halpert, NOAA’s deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center]: If it is, it’s probably fairly insignificant at this point. If it were to play a role, it would be more likely if, somehow, climate change is impacting either the Arctic oscillation or El Nino, and we’re not really aware that it is at this point. If you think…
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