Confirmation bias in climate predictions: El Niño and Arctic temperatures

fatti, robusti fatti…e pregiudizi

Stefano Fait, forecasting foresight anticipation

Source: Danmarks Meteorologiske InstitutSource: Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities.

Wikipedia

 

This is one of the chief culprits of predictive failures in climate science.

Luckily, someone is more resistant to this bias than others.

SHAPIRO: OK. So El Nino plays a role. The Arctic oscillation plays a role. What about climate change? Is that playing a role?

HALPERT [Mike Halpert, NOAA’s deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center]: If it is, it’s probably fairly insignificant at this point. If it were to play a role, it would be more likely if, somehow, climate change is impacting either the Arctic oscillation or El Nino, and we’re not really aware that it is at this point. If you think…

View original post 228 altre parole

Lascia un commento

Inserisci i tuoi dati qui sotto o clicca su un'icona per effettuare l'accesso:

Logo WordPress.com

Stai commentando usando il tuo account WordPress.com. Chiudi sessione / Modifica )

Foto Twitter

Stai commentando usando il tuo account Twitter. Chiudi sessione / Modifica )

Foto di Facebook

Stai commentando usando il tuo account Facebook. Chiudi sessione / Modifica )

Google+ photo

Stai commentando usando il tuo account Google+. Chiudi sessione / Modifica )

Connessione a %s...

%d blogger cliccano Mi Piace per questo: